A Repeat of 2010 in the Works?

Andy’s Notes: During 2010, the US Consumer paid down a significant amount of debt. It scared the moneychangers quite magnificently. In an fractional reserve, fiat monetary system, ‘growth’ comes at least in part by inflation of the money supply and the subsequent effect on prices. One of the biggest ways monetary inflation occurs is when money is placed on deposit at a bank and nearly all of that money is then lent out by the bank – at interest. Every loan increases the money supply. When loans stop?

The summer data will be very interesting to say the least. Keep in mind that this paydown happened with the federal government handing out cash – again. It could very well be that in 2020, much like 2007, the ‘stimulus’ money went to help repair balance sheets rather than to accumulate more stuff.

Sutton


source: tradingeconomics.com

Andy Chats with Joe Cristiano about the Dollar and Signposts for the Future

As always it was a pleasure getting together with Joe Cristiano. We never seem to be able to stop at our 20 minute target, however! We talking about the Russia-China trade situation where they’re slowing backing out of the $USD, what happens when global demand for the $USD drops, some mild to moderate capital and price controls that have emerged under the cover of NCV and other useful tidbits. The link for the YouTube video is below.

Sutton

Washington Town Creates Currency for Local Use

Andy’s Notes: The four requirements of any money are intrinsic value, a unit of account, a store of wealth, and a medium of exchange. These new minted ‘bills’ are able to be used locally, but the holders cannot compel any business or individual to accept them as legal tender. The US has legal tender laws that specify what may be used as legal tender. Does this make it a bad idea? Not necessarily. The USDollar doesn’t meet the ‘store of wealth’ requirement because of inflation and it is still accepted everywhere in the US. The Dollar also has little or no intrinsic value. The Tenino bills lack intrinsic value as well, but meet the other three requirements as long as everyone in the cohort is willing to accept them as legal tender and – this is a biggie – the bills are backed in such manner that whoever runs the printing press can’t print themselves a nice pile and go out and buy real goods with them.

The last sentence above is key to why banking systems fail over time. The temptation for the printers of money to run off currency beyond the backing is too much. This is why the banks of the 1800s failed so often. They’d over-issue silver certificates beyond the silver stored. The people would get wise to it and run the bank demanding silver and the banks would run out and have to close.

Since we no longer have redeemability on US currency, it makes over-issuance a real problem, especially in the digital age. Will the ‘wooden dollar’ experiment work? Time will tell. If nothing else, this is yet another signpost on the trek to the end of the road for the used and abused USPetrodollar.

Sutton/Mehl

TENINO, United States, July 9 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Tucked away under lock and key in a former railroad depot turned small-town museum in the U.S. state of Washington, a wooden printing press cranked back to life to mint currency after nearly 90 dormant years.

The end product: $25 wooden bills bearing the town’s name – Tenino – with the words “COVID Relief” superimposed on the image of a bat and the Latin phrase “Habemus autem sub potestate” (We have it under control) printed in cursive.

With the coronavirus pandemic plunging the United States into a recession, decimating small businesses and causing job losses across the country, some local governments are looking for innovative ways to help residents weather the storm.

For Tenino, the answer was the revival of the local currency that had bolstered the town’s economy in 1931 in the wake of the Great Depression.

“It was kind of an epiphany: Why don’t we do that again?” Mayor Wayne Fournier told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “It only made sense.”

Tenino, a town of less than 2,000 people located about 60 miles (95km) southwest of Seattle, started printing the local banknotes in April, five weeks into Washington state’s lockdown.

Anyone with a documented loss of income as a result of the pandemic is eligible for up to $300 a month of the local currency.

Businesses up and down the town’s quaint Main Street accept the wooden note for everything except alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and lottery tickets.

Tenino’s city government backs the local currency, which merchants can exchange for U.S. dollars at city hall at a 1:1 rate.

Susan Witt, executive director of the Schumacher Center for a New Economics, a Massachusetts-based think tank, said alternative currencies like Tenino’s banknote are better than direct cash payments at boosting local economies.

“The City of Barcelona gave donations (in 2017/18) to sports teams and cultural groups as well as social programs (then) watched these donations go to big box stores,” she said in emailed comments.

“So, it created a local currency so that these ‘discretionary’ funds in its budget would circle back to support locally-owned businesses.”

‘WOVEN INTO OUR DNA’

Mayor Fournier noted that, for long-time Tenino residents, the wooden notes are nothing new.

The tiny town founded around a sandstone quarry achieved national prominence in 1931 when civic leaders printed a wooden local currency to restore consumer confidence after the town’s bank failed during the Great Depression.

“This is woven into the DNA of the community,” Fournier said. “My great aunt Erlene has the family collection all stashed away.”

The mayor brought the idea of resurrecting the town’s legacy project to the city council as a way to provide economic relief to businesses and residents suffering as a result of lockdown measures to slow the spread of COVID-19.

In April councillors approved the proposal to issue up to $10,000 in local scrip.

So far, 13 residents have successfully applied for the funds and some $2,500 worth of wooden bills have been issued, Fournier said, with donations upping the total funds available to $16,000.

A Gamble for All Time

In 2008, the central bankers of the world revealed the true danger of Keynesian economic theory by staging the biggest bailout to date. There was a short flurry of complaints about the banking system being able to leverage the economy instead of just themselves and their filth-ridden balance sheets.

Fast forward 12 years. You guessed it – another massive bailout. The warnings issued after the crisis of 2008 went unheeded, banks leveraged to even greater levels than 2008 and brought the rest of the world with them. Now, not only has runaway Keynesianism enabled the banks to leverage themselves and the financial economy, now they’ve been permitted to leverage the entire world’s economy as well.

Central banks are gambling the next hundred years of economic history that they can print their way out of this mess. Instead of unwinding their malfeasance, they’re doubling down.

Many of you read our piece on ‘modern monetary theory’ last summer. That is now in play as well. This summer we’ll analyze the next move in an epic economic game of chicken. And there isn’t a person on Earth who will be left unaffected. Coming Soon…

Sutton/Mehl

Liberty Talk Radio – Bailout 2020 Edition

Dear Readers, Andy was on Liberty Talk Radio again with Joe Cristiano to discuss the 2020 economic stimulus package recently passed by Congress. We’ve reached a critical inflection point as a country – we now ‘need’ these stimulus programs / bailouts to continue to function in our current monetary and economic system. During the crisis of 2008, there was a chance to change course. With the passing of 12 subsequent years, so has the chance to sufficiently alter course. We’re locked into the petrodollar system until the next currency model emerges.

For convenience and at the request of several readers, we’re adding the audio from the discussion in mp3 format. You may listen below or download it by right-clicking the link. More updates to follow.

Sutton/Mehl

https://www.andysutton.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ltr_03282020.mp3

Retirement Accounts Part of Next Bailout? (We’ve Already Addressed This)

Today, for the first time, a prominent national politician mentioned on television news that portions or potentially all of the pension systems in the United States might have to be ‘nationalized’ to fund additional bailout measures.

It is already abundantly clear that the $2+ Trillion measure that just passed the Senate won’t be nearly enough. We have lived by debt for many years with seemingly few – if any – observable consequences. The old saying says ‘live by the sword, die by the sword’. Perhaps we’re about to find out.

In 2013 there was a bank raid on the tiny Mediterranean island of Cyprus. Panic ensued with depositors losing the ability to withdraw funds, a bank holiday followed and a bail-in resulted. A bail-in? Yes, that’s not a typo. We penned a volley of articles dealing with what transpired in Cyprus and closed out with some possible mechanisms by which US retirement assets would be seized to protect national security interests.

Rather than re-write all of that content we’re going to just re-post what we penned at that time. Tomorrow (hopefully) we’ll be able to take a short guided tour through those articles and apply some of what is going on now and how this whole thing might come together. A friendly reminder. We are not asking for any money. We don’t want any. We are not giving advice. We are providing information and analysis based on almost 50 combined years of studying economics, financial markets, and geopolitics. The link to the compilation – in PDF format – is below. Until next time,

Sutton/Mehl